N. Uras Demir, Ph.D.
Computational Social Scientist
with Expertise in Political Risk Modeling
About me
I am a computational social scientist with a PhD from the University of California Irvine's Department of Political Science. I specialize in quantitative research methodology and international relations. My research explores economic statecraft by focusing on international trade.
I was formerly a Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Predoctoral Research Fellow at the University of Tokyo's Institute of Social Science, a Smith Richardson Foundation World Politics and Statecraft Fellow, and a UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation Dissertation Fellow.
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I taught at the University of California, Irvine and Chapman University. I was a Pedagogical Fellow and a two-time Teaching Apprentice at UC Irvine's Division of Teaching Excellence and Innovation. I am also interested in conducting pedagogical research.
I am fascinated with data science have worked as a quantitative researcher for numerous projects. I use R for my work, and I have experience teaching it. I also have experience with Python, SQL, and Tableau. Feel free to check out some of the project demos below.
I received my MSc from Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commericales du Nord (EDHEC) in Lille, France, in Global Business with a concentration on Finance. My thesis research on financial herding behavior detection in equity markets received the institution's best research award.
I received my joint BSc in International Relations from the State University of New York at Binghamton and Middle East Technical University in Ankara, Turkey. My native language is Turkish, I am conversational in French and Japanese .
​Research
Global Supply Chains in Economic Statecraft
This study explores why interdependence fosters cooperation for some states but fuels conflict for others. I argue that the composition of intermediate good flows plays a crucial role in these outcomes. Using clustering algorithms, I categorize intermediate goods and develop an index quantifying interstate conflict and cooperation. Through multilevel modeling and case studies on East Asia, I demonstrate the causal mechanism. An abridged version of the quantitative analysis is currently under review.
Are Global Supply Chains Vital for China’s Leaders?
This study examines China’s outward-looking political economy and the role of global supply chains. We identify growing challenges to China’s supply chain activities and three key leadership perspectives on GSCs. The balance between these views will shape the future of global interdependence. In Etel Solingen (Ed.) 2021. Geopolitics, Supply Chains, and International Relations of East Asia. Cambridge University Press.
Do Allies' Supply Chains Also Follow the Flag?
This project reexamines the "trade follows the flag" hypothesis in intermediate goods trade. Using the US-China trade war as a quasi-experimental intervention, we estimate counterfactual trends in intermediate goods outflows from U.S. military allies to both countries. Our findings show that military alliances can influence trade flows during crises. The paper is under revision for Economic and Political Studies.
Rally around the Flag? Consumer Responses to Economic Sanctions
This paper examines how citizens respond when foreign adversaries impose economic sanctions on domestic goods. Using a quasi-experimental approach, it analyzes China's 2021–2023 sanctions on Taiwanese fruit and seafood, measuring buycott effects across 748 products. The study tests conditions under which consumers increase domestic purchases to counter sanctions. It contributes to research on political consumerism, economic sanctions, and the link between conflict and commerce.
Learning International Relations Theory by Doing: Two Novel Games
This study uses teaching-as-research to examine the impact of competitive and collaborative games in international relations education. I introduce novel classroom games that reflect realist and liberal theories. Using a post-pre survey design, we assess their effects on student course preferences, learning efficacy, and retention.
Teaching
Political Analysis
How do political scientists carry out research? This R-integrated course aims to introduce students to the fundamentals of computational political science. The course covers the basics of research design, data gathering, the use of R for data wrangling, visualization, and analysis, and the application of basic quantitative methods to answer research questions. While this course is primarily designed for political science majors, the practical and transferable research skills taught in this course will be applicable across all social science majors (and beyond the campus).
Introduction to International Relations
What are the causes of change in the international system? This course explores how states and nonstate actors interact with each other. It examines the key theories, concepts, and debates in the field and discusses contemporary global issues such as trade, technology, human rights, and climate change. It also explores how globalization shapes the behavior of states and other actors. This course provides a foundation for students to pursue their studies in international relations.
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Chapman University
[Click here for the student evaluations]
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University of California, Irvine
[Click here for the student evaluations]
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Teaching Assistant
I served as a teaching assistant for ten quarters for the following courses at UC Irvine: year-long Statistics and Probability Sequence (three times), Computer-Based Research in Social Sciences, Political Science Research Design, Introduction to International Relations, and Introduction to Economics.
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